The size and duration of an overshoot will also affect future impacts. The consequences of temporarily overshooting 1.5☌ of warming and returning to this level later in the century, for example, could be larger than if temperature stabilizes below 1.5☌. Limiting warming to 1.5☌ rather than 2☌ can help reduce these risks, but the impacts the world experiences will depend on the specific greenhouse gas emissions ‘pathway’ taken. An average warming of 1.5☌ across the whole globe raises the risk of heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, amongst many other potential impacts. However, they are not spread uniformly across the globe, and different parts of the world experience impacts differently. Summary : The impacts of climate change are being felt in every inhabited continent and in the oceans.
Zougmoré (Burkina Faso, Mali)įAQ 3.1: What are the Impacts of 1.5☌ and 2☌ of Warming? Richard Wartenburger (Switzerland, Germany).Annette Hirsch (Switzerland, Australia).Tania Guillén Bolaños (Germany, Nicaragua).
Anjani Ganase (Australia, Trinidad & Tobago). We conclude by specifying the conditions under which lagged explanatory variables are appropriate responses to endogeneity concerns. We then use Monte Carlo simulations to show how, even under favorable conditions, lag identification leads to incorrect inferences. We build our argument intuitively using directed acyclic graphs and then provide analytical results on the bias of lag identification in a simple linear regression framework. We show that lagging explanatory variables as a response to endogeneity moves the channel through which endogeneity biases parameter estimates, supplementing a “selection on observables” assumption with an equally untestable “no dynamics among unobservables” assumption. There exist surprisingly few formal analyses or theoretical results, however, that establish whether lagged explanatory variables are effective in surmounting endogeneity concerns and, if so, under what conditions. Lagged explanatory variables are commonly used in political science in response to endogeneity concerns in observational data.
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